After the Potomac primary, it is now safe to say that Obama will have a 65+ lead in the pledged delegates (barring something extraordinary occurring in Maine, DC, Virginia or Maryland).

With a lead like that in pledged delegates, it will be tempting for Obama supporters to predict that momentum is swinging and that he is on his way to victory.  Looking at the leaked Obama spreadsheet, we can compare what they have predicted internally to what is likely to occur and get a sense of what is to come.

First off, the results from Saturday's four elections exceeded the spreadsheets predictions by 6 delegates for Obama.  If that trend continues, then it is likely to bode well.

Similarly, the spreadsheet predicts a narrow loss in Maine today.  With snow being a factor, in addition to it being a caucus, this seems like a pretty cautious prediction.  That being said, the race will be close, and not likely to move the caucus count either way.

So that leaves 18 contests only 8 of which have more than 50 delegates to award.  Of those, Obama holds disadvantages in 6.

• Wisconsin (74 delegates) The Obama campaign's spreadsheet has themselves winning 53% - 46%.  However, ARG released a post-super Tuesday poll that has Clinton up 50% - 41%.  If this accurately predicts the results, it could mean a swing of 12-15 delegates towards Clinton (not to mention a narrative killer for the Obama Momentum in February.

• Ohio (141 delegates) The Obama campaign has themselves losing in Ohio, but by only a 46% - 53% margin.  However, the most recent poll done at the end of January has Clinton 42% -- Obama 19%.  The highest Obama has ever polled in Ohio is 23%.  Now, Obama has typically had some success in closing these gaps, but that was typically due to lack of name recognition.  At this point in the election, that has to be less significant.  Also, Clinton has a strong ground game in place already in Ohio and the demographics strongly favor her.  If Obama loses by a 15 point margin, that is enough to give Clinton 16 more delegates.

• Texas Similar to Ohio, the Obama campaign has themselves only losing by 4% in Texas.  There have really been no polls in Texas, but the demographics favor Clinton with the high Hispanic vote.  Also, she already has established some key endorsements and a strong ground game.  The hybrid format of the election where voters can show up to vote in a primary and then come back to caucus at night favors the grassroots nature of Obama's campaign.  Overall, I don't think that is enough to make it only a 4% difference.  If it is more like a 10% loss for Obama that would mean a swing of approx 20 delegates.

• Pennsylvania  This one is a lot like Ohio.  The spreadsheet has Obama losing by only 5%, but the most recent poll has him losing by 20%. If he is unable to make up that ground then it could mean an addition 20 delegate swing towards Clinton.
  

Of the 50+ delegate states, there remains North Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, and Indiana which all may lean one way or the other, but at this point it is hard to say whether any would be significant in the delegate count.

So, in summary, I think the Obama campaign spreadsheet is too conservative overall in margins of victory.  They underestimate their own margins, but they also underestimate the Clinton margins in the states that favor her.  The net effect of this is a heavy swing towards Clinton in the pledged delegates because her favorable states are the real delegate treasure chests.  

The 71 extra pledged delegates that could come from slightly larger wins in Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania could be enough to bring the pledged delegate count to a tie which would give Clinton a legitimate claim to the nomination.  If it is tied, without including her advantages in MI, FL and Superdelegates, she should walk away from the convention with the nomination.

The media continues to overhype the Obama campaign and build expectations that will not be met.  Lacking any specific polling data the media has been continually predicting that all of the following February primaries & caucuses will go Obama's way.  I have very specific reasons why that will not happen:

Washington:  The two state senators have both endorsed Clinton.  It is a caucus which means this type of support will heavily help turn-out & control of the caucus process.  Similar to Nevada where the Reid family helped control the caucus process.  Also, Californians supported clinton, and Washington most resembles California in it's population demographics.  Finally, Asian-Americans in California showed clear support for Clinton, and Washington has a high percentage of Asian Americans.

Louisiana:  Hurricane Katrina greatly altered the demographics of Louisana and African-Americans do not have as great of a majority as they once did.  Add in Clinton's strong and visible work after the Hurricane and Louisana shows strong potential for a Clinton win.

Maine:  Clinton won neighboring states of New Hampshire and Massachusetts by significant majorities.  Maine has supported strong female candidates for Senate.

Virginia:  The rural south has been strongly supporting Clinton in low African-American areas.  There is enough of a balance demographically in Virginia for this to be heavily contested.  Additionally, the DNC has a strong presence in Virginia and a lot of the heads have already endorsed Clinton including: Terry McAuliffe, Jennifer McClellan, and Susan Swecker.

I do think the remaining states still hold advantages for Obama, but these four show that she can easily hold her own through the month of February and into March.

What do people make of the recent bump for Hillary in both the Gallup & Rasmussen daily trackings.  Yesterday it seemed like maybe just an aberration, but her lead jumped big again in today's Rasmussen post.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/daily_presidential_tra cking_poll

Is it possible that the debate convinced people that they are both great candidates, but it isn't Obama's turn yet?

The Obama campaign has scheduled two events for Albuquerque, NM on Friday.  This after Governor Bill Richardson has been quoted saying he would endorse by the end of the week.  It seems like a gutsy move if Obama didn't already know that he had the endorsement wrapped up.

If Richardson and Edwards both endorsed the same candidate prior to Feb. 5th, it would be hard to stop the MO.